Mitrione is coming off a 3 fight win streak and last win over Gabriel Gonzaga.
Mitrione is light on his feet for a heavyweight and has more of a kickboxing background than anything else. He has several wins via KO and TKO he has lost via submission. Contrast that with Ben Rothwell coming off a win against one of the best strikers in the world Alistair Overeem. Rothwell kept his cool and knocked out Overeem after eating some good strikes and afterwards did a legendary dance.
Overeem did not keep his distance like I thought he would, in his last fight he noticed that and changed things up. Mitrione will use his speed and has an advantage in the cardo department. Look for Mitrione to use some leg kicks and quick hands to tire Rothwell. Mitrone Win via TKO 3rd round
The main event Hendo vs. Boetsch is an interesting one. Both guys with plenty of power, the main question is can Hendo get on top and stay there or will he get careless and charge in with his head down throwing looping punches? Boetsch is going to know what to expect and I expect him to come out with the W. Boetsch Win via UD
Hall is a beast, he should not have a problem winning this. The issue is that he is too nice. He lacks killer instinct sometimes. After watching the weigh ins where he pushes I dont think this will be an issue.
Co main events are stacked. Travis Brown is big and he has very good footwork and is fast. He moves like a basketball player. AA is a MMA legend, also fast and with KO power not to mention all the ring time but I do not see how he can win unless Brown makes a big mistake. He is not faster than Brown which is an advantage that AA has over some other HW. Odds are not great for a Brown win though. Cowboy, we know what he is going to do. Push the action with Muay Thai and BJJ. Odds are really not worth the risk for him winning though and I dont see how Makdessi wins unless Cerrone does something really out of style.
This is an interesting match up. Burkman coming off a win to Hector Lumbard and Dong Hyun Kim coming off a loss from Woods. Before his loss he was on a nice winning streak. Is DHK ready to get back on the W side or is Burkman a real underrated fighter? No matter who you think is going to take this one the odds are good for the favorite and the underdog here.
Weidman vs. Belfort , New vs. Old, Volume vs. Power – Belfort plenty of KOs , lots of 1st round finishes. Explosive, Power when you are in trouble he swarms like no other world class BJJ. Weidman hard grinder, good striking high level wrestling cardo till next week, comes on strong in late rounds. This is an epic match up, Im sure Weidman´s corner is going to tell him something like “put a hole through his fu**kn face” and Belfort, well he is already going nuts without you needing to tell him. Even though Weidman is the favorite and rightfully so I like this 5.045 for Belfort and I think that is underrating what he can do. Watch Belfort vs. Jones again and then tell me why this should be 5.045
Corminer vs. Johnson – Volume vs. Power Part 2! This is a very similar match up! The main difference is that both of these guys wrestling is good with Cormier having the upper hand on paper. AJ has never been in a title match and is not known for having great cardo but has looked like a pure animal since he moved up a weight class and has not had to stress the weight cut, this should help his cardio. AJs stand up has looked really good and Cormier lost to Jones, but did not do “that bad” considering Jones is a meat grinder. I agree with the odds makers making this a throw up and I like the over 2. 5 rounds at 1.7 , I expect war.
Some quick betting picks on what should be an all time great card. Alex Caceres vs. Masanori Kanehara, Miesha Tate vs. Rin Nakai, the return of Akiyama in Yoshihiro Akiyama vs Amir Sadollah. Lots of great fights but only 2 that I think are worth betting on. Tate vs. Nakai , Nakai is undefeated and Tate has had a hard time lately, I wouldnt touch this one. Akiyama is returning and we dont know what he will look like so I would also stay clear of this one. Myles Jury vs Takanori Gomi I dont understand why Gomi is such an underdog at 5.7 ! If you want an underdog then Gomi is the one to bet on but personaly I would stay clear, he takes too much damage. Alex Caceres has been looking really good, is better every fight so far. He can stick to game plans and survives through tough sithuations.
Alex Caceres 1.345 WIN
Masanori Kanehara 3.546
and for the main event of the evening, maybe one of the greatest fights of all time…
Mark Hunt 1.907
Roy Nelson 1.998
The line have gotten closer and closer with this one. Hunt was more of a favorite when the odds were annouced but now it looks like a lot of people have been betting on Nelson. Forget the who is going to win bet, go for rounds. This is a 5 ROUND FIGHT and we are getting offered these odds:
OVER 1.5 rounds 1.562
UNDER 1.5 rounds 2.497
Take the OVER 1.5 rounds for 1.562. There are no sure bets in MMA but damn, I really will be hellva suprised if this ends within 1.5 rounds. Both guys have great chins. I see this being more of a battle like Hunt vs. Bigfoot. Of course Nelson has an advantage on the ground but Hunts take down defense has improved. On the otherhand I dont think he has had someone quite as big as Nelson on top of him. I see Hunt countering and using leg kicks. If Nelson cant check leg kicks or use them for take downs he is going to have a long night.
Bet at your own risk
Rory MacDonald v Tyron Woodley
Tyron Woodley 2.018 (+102)
This is going to be FOTN, Both are good wrestlers, this could be a stand up battle, I see woodly having the advantage here.
Ryan Bader v Rafael Cavalcante
Ryan Bader 1.634 (-158) Look for Bader to try and lay and prey a win, and he should get it.
Mike Easton v Yves Jabouin
Mike Easton 1.467 (-214) Easton is a well rounded fighter that you should keep an eye on.